The current state polling.
One Nation is polling at levels in Victoria that would have been unthinkable at the last state election, drawing primary-vote support in the low-double-digits in several outer-suburban and regional seats and threatening to reshape preference flows at the November 2026 poll.
Statewide, One Nation's primary vote is sitting between 6% and 9% in the major published polls — up from 2% at the 2022 election. In specific outer-suburban electorates the number is higher: internal party polling shared with News Corp put the vote in Melton, Kalkallo and parts of Casey above 12%.
The rise mirrors what has happened federally, where Pauline Hanson's party lifted its Senate vote in Victoria to 4.7% at the 2025 federal election.
Three issues dominate the party's Victorian pitch: immigration and population growth, community safety, and energy costs. Each maps to real anxieties in the outer growth corridors, where population has grown 15–25% in five years, infrastructure has lagged, and residential electricity bills are up sharply since 2022.
Focus-group work by both major parties suggests One Nation is drawing from three sources: 2022 Coalition voters disappointed with Battin's centrist positioning, disengaged voters returning to the ballot, and a smaller cohort of former Labor voters in traditionally working-class outer suburbs.
The bigger effect may be in preferences rather than seat wins. Under Victoria's optional preferential lower house system, One Nation's how-to-vote card matters. In 2022 the party preferenced the Coalition ahead of Labor in most seats but distributed loosely in others. A tighter deal for 2026 could shift the two-party swing by a percentage point or more in a handful of marginals.
The Legislative Council, elected by proportional representation across eight regions, is where One Nation is most likely to gain actual seats. A quota is 16.7% per region; the party is competitive for the final seat in North-Eastern Metropolitan and Northern Victoria regions.
Labor has largely avoided direct engagement, calculating that responding elevates the party. The Coalition is walking a tighter line, competing for the same voters on cost of living and safety without adopting the immigration rhetoric that Battin has repeatedly ruled out.
The Teals — Kate Chaney-style community independents — are running in three inner-eastern seats and represent a very different challenge for the Coalition. Where One Nation threatens the Coalition base in the outer suburbs, the Teals threaten Liberal-held blue-ribbon seats like Kew and Brighton.
Whether One Nation lodges candidates in every lower-house seat, how the how-to-vote cards land in October, and whether the final Newspoll shows the primary vote holding above 6% — historically the level below which minor parties collapse into major-party preferences on election night.