Balanced options tracked by SuperRatings look set to finish the financial year up around 6–7%, well below FY25.
With one trading day left in the 2025–26 financial year, median balanced superannuation options are on track to deliver a return of roughly 6–7% for the year — a solid result in absolute terms, but a clear step down from FY25's double-digit gain. Preliminary numbers from SuperRatings and Chant West point to the same story: a good year, not a great one.
Global equities were the swing factor. The S&P 500 rose about 8% over the year in USD terms, but a stronger Australian dollar clipped the return for unhedged Australian investors. The AI-driven rally that carried tech stocks through 2024 lost steam in the March quarter as valuations stretched and earnings guidance softened.
The ASX 200 returned roughly 5% including dividends. Big-four banks were the standout, benefiting from wider net interest margins in a plateaued-rate environment. The materials sector was flat as iron-ore prices spent the year in a $95–$115 range. Health care lagged on CSL's soft plasma volumes.
Unlisted assets — the property and infrastructure holdings that make up 20–30% of a typical balanced portfolio — dragged. Office valuations were written down again mid-year at the major industry funds; unlisted infrastructure held up better but returned less than in FY25.
On a $250,000 balance in a median balanced option, a 6.5% return adds roughly $16,000 before fees. On the $80,000 average balance of a Victorian in their late 30s, it is closer to $5,200. Not the $10,000+ gain of FY25, but well ahead of inflation.
High-growth options — 85–95% growth assets — are tracking around 8–9%, rewarding members who left them there through the volatility of 2024. Conservative and cash options returned 3–5%, roughly in line with term deposits.
AustralianSuper, Aware Super, HESTA and Cbus — all major Melbourne employers and among the largest funds in the country — publish final crediting rates in mid-July. AustralianSuper had already flagged that its balanced option would return "high single digits". Cbus signalled a similar range despite its heavier construction-sector infrastructure exposure.
Fee compression continued. The average total fee on a MySuper balanced option is now 0.94% per year, down from 1.03% five years ago. Every 0.10% saved is roughly $250 per year on the median balance and compounds substantially over a working life.
Ten-year annualised returns for the median balanced option remain a shade under 8% per year — comfortably ahead of the 2.7% average CPI over the same period and of the SPIVA benchmark for actively managed retail funds. That long-run number, not any single year, is what determines the eventual retirement balance.
Three things: the timing of RBA cuts and their flow-through to bond returns; whether US tech earnings justify current multiples; and whether the next round of unlisted-asset valuations catches up with what listed property trusts have already priced in. Members changing options in response to a single-year result almost always trail those who stay the course.